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Baseball Championship

GMAT-XLKNTL

Two baseball teams (Team A and Team B) are playing a best-of-five games championship series, which means that the first team to achieve three winning games is the winner of the championship. Based on previous experience, Team A has a 42% chance of winning the first game of a series against Team B (and therefore a 58% of losing). During this series, any team that wins a game increases its chances of winning the next game, and any team that loses a game decreases its chances of winning the next game. The table below shows specific changes in probabilities that may occur based on past experience. For example, Team A has a 47% chance of winning against Team B following one previous winning game.

In the sortable table below, click on the column title to organize the table by that column's values.

Outcome for Team A Probability of Winning Subsequent Game Probability of Losing Subsequent Game
playing first game of a series against Team B 0.42 0.58
after having won one game 0.47 0.53
after having won two games in a row 0.55 0.45
after having lost one game 0.39 0.61
after having lost two games in a row 0.32 0.68

Decide whether the following statements are true or false about this scenario.

True

False

True

False

Winning helps Team A’s chances of winning subsequent games by a greater amount than losing hurts Team A’s chances of winning subsequent games.

True

False

Team A has a less than 10% chance of sweeping the series by winning three straight games.

True

False

Team A’s chance of winning the championship is greater than 35%.