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The mayor of a large city is considering running for reelection.

She won the previous election against her competitor $52\%$ to $48\%$.

Last week, two independent, random samples were taken of likely voters, each of size $n = 50$. These polls found the proportion of likely voters to vote for the current mayor is $48\%$ and $50\%$, respectively.

Assume she is running against one other candidate and needs the majority of votes to win.

Individually, which of the following statements is true about these samples?


Both samples give sufficient evidence that she will NOT be reelected.


The mayor still could easily get $52\%$ of the vote on election day, as getting samples of size $n = 50$ at $50\%$ and $48\%$ could easily happen by chance.


The sample containing $48\%$ is convincing evidence she will NOT be reelected, but the $50\%$ sample fails to give such evidence.


Since a sample found her getting less than the majority vote, the mayor will be very likely to lose.


These samples give strong evidence the mayor will NOT lose the upcoming race and still has $52\%$ of the vote, as these values could have easily happened by chance.

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