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Mary has been flipping a quarter to record how many times it lands heads up or tails up. She has recorded multiple instances of it landing heads up three times in a row but very few landing four times in a row. Because of this, Mary has concluded that if any quarter lands heads up three times in a row, the next flip has greater odds to land tails up.

If the quarter in question is a standard quarter, which of the following would best be used to show an error in her logic?


The probability of getting heads up decreases every time the quarter lands heads up.


The probability of a quarter landing heads up or tails up is the same no matter what has happened before.


If a quarter behaved in this way it would have already been generally accepted as fact.


If someone else has observed this behavior as well, they will see a quarter landing heads up four times in a row more often after many subsequent flips.


The probability increases depending on the conditions of the flip.

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