Your client is considering four projects that will use approximately the same capital investment. They only have enough capital to invest in one of the proposals. Here are the metrics computed using the project's expected returns:
|Proposal 1||Proposal 2||Proposal 3||Proposal 4|
|Payback period||4 years||3.5 years||5 years||6 years|
|Net present value||\$80,000||\$79,000||\$66,000||\$78,000|
|Internal rate of return||16%||14%||11%||16%|
|Accrual accounting rate of return||8%||6%||4%||7%|
If the future cash flows are very uncertain, which method is likely to be weighed more heavily in determining which proposal to pursue?